According to JPMorgan Chase Bank, the economy has made its soft landing. With inflation almost down to the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, the economy still growing, and the job market strong, it appears that the US economy has made the difficult transition from high inflation without going through a recession.
The Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University forecast a seasonal slowdown in the Chicago area market. For the remainder of 2024, sales are expected to drop monthly but remain above 2023.
Homeowners are waiting for rates to fall, but there is only so long they will wait. Homeowner equity is a record $3.5 trillion across the US, and the average individual homeowner equity is $315,000. This means there are thousands of sellers out there who want to trade up to a new home.
Home prices in the Chicago area are moderating and inventories are rising. With rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage going down to an average of 6.25% and expected to fall even further in the new year, the 2025 Spring market has the potential to be very strong.
The Conference Board is forecasting annual 2024 GDP growth in the US to average 2.5% with slower growth in the new year. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Illinois economy grew 2.8% in Q2. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% in September to 2.4% down from the 2.5% rise in August. September non-farm payrolls increased 254,000 jobs, substantially beating the 203,000 12-month average. The national unemployment rate is at 4.1%. Illinois added 37,300 jobs in the last year with unemployment numbers rising to 5.2% according to The Illinois Department of Employment Security.
For the first time in four months, The Conference Board reported a dip in consumer confidence in September to 98.7 from 105.6 in August. Inflation fears topped the list of consumer concerns.